U.S. inventories of turkey eggs in incubators on June 1 reached their lowest point since 1988, according to a report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS).
On June 1, 2024, the number of eggs in incubators was 22.8 million. While the ERS report didn’t include 1988 figures, it did show a significant decrease from June 1 during the previous two years. The number of turkey eggs in incubators on June 1, 2022, was 26.1 million, and on June 1, 2023, that number was 28.1 million.
The number of U.S. turkey eggs in incubators was unusually low on June 1, 2024.Courtesy USDA ERS
ERS also noted that poult placements in June were down 18% on a year-over-year basis, at 20.6 million. The only time since 2005 that poult placements have been that low were earlier this year in February, when 19.8 million poults were placed.
Was avian influenza a factor?
ERS downplayed the impact the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak had on the declining egg numbers.
Most of the cases of HPAI in U.S. turkey breeder flocks were confirmed after June 1. Only four farms directly identified by USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) as turkey breeder flocks have been reported in 2024 Three of those – involving one flock of 4,200 breeder toms, one flock of 21,900 breeder hens, and one flock of 15,400 breeder hens – were confirmed on July 24. The other flock involved 6,800 breeder hens, but that flock infection was confirmed on May 21.
On May 2, APHIS confirmed the presence of HPAI in another breeder flock that included 14,100 head of poultry, but the agency did not specify what type of poultry was involved.
ERS speculated that the decline in egg numbers in June was likely more related to “production decisions.”
Impact on Thanksgiving turkey supplies
Because of the typical growth cycle for turkeys, eggs incubated in June and placed in July usually grow out to be slaughtered as fresh Thanksgiving turkeys. That means that the supply for fresh turkeys is likely to be substantially reduced for Thanksgiving 2024.
However, ERS stated that there should still be a sufficient supply of frozen turkeys for Thanksgiving dinners. Inventories of whole frozen hen turkeys, weighing between eight and 16 pounds, were up 16% on a year-over-year basis as of June 30, 2024.
