Poultry meat production reached nearly 125 million metric tons in 2018 and is forecast to increase nearly 3% in 2019, according to projections from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). FAO attributes the overall slowdown in meat production to animal disease and the increases to better technology, improving productivity.
On trend, developing countries captured the majority of poultry meat production and consumption and imports in 2018, and are predicted to do so in 2019, as well, with changing diets and growing economies.
During the past 15 years from 2004-19, poultry production rose nearly 44 million metric tons compared to 46 million metric tons in the period 2003-18, according to FAO reports. In comparing individual countries, U.S., China and Brazil remain the leaders in poultry meat production, with 2019 production in those countries forecast by FAO at 22.6 million metric tons, 20.4 million metric tons and 14.2 million metric tons, respectively. Countries like South Africa, however, will not be able to produce as much as they consume.
Developing countries boost consumption
Changing economic and dietary factors in developing regions have resulted in a world poultry meat consumption average of about 14 kilograms per person per year over the average base period 2016-18, which will continue to grow slowly to a projected 14.8 kilograms per capita by 2028. Developing regions like Latin America and the Caribbean will account for much consumption growth, forecast at more than double world poultry consumption rates to 33.9 kilograms per capita by 2028.
Toward the beginning of the outlook period, FAO projects a slow increase in the poultry flock, coupled with rising feed costs, will bring a moderate increase in poultry prices.
US broiler, turkey situation
U.S. broiler production will remain relatively flat again from 2019-20 compared with 2018-19, while U.S. turkey producers are forecast to see their production decrease by -0.2% in 2018-19 with only a slight increase from 2019-20.
World poultry meat exports are projected by FAO to expand 3.7% globally in 2019, reaching a total just shy of 14 million metric tons. Strong growth in demand is fueling optimism, notably from China, Japan, the Philippines, Mexico and Ghana, among other developing, largely importing countries.
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Domestic consumption volume of broiler in South Africa from 2013-19
Feed cost index and poultry-to-feed price ratio 1988-2028
Per capita meat consumption worldwide by type 2016-18 vs. 2028
Percent change in US broiler and turkey production 2018-20
Poultry meat production and consumption estimates in select countries 2019
Poultry meat trade by region 2018-19
World balance for meats by type 2017-19