Paul AhoPaul Aho, Ph.D., is owner of Poultry Perspective and economist and consultant. To contact Aho, email [email protected].From the AuthorProcessing & Slaughter12 people who transformed US poultry productionChicken went from rare and expensive to bountiful and low-priced meat protein thanks to a host of innovators, including these 12 trailblazers.Processing & SlaughterGlobal food companies will control the poultry industryIn the not-too-distant future, all poultry businesses will be global internet businesses or they will not be in business at all. They will, in all likelihood, be food companies, not poultry companies.Broilers & TurkeysCompañías alimentarias globales controlarán la aviculturaEn un futuro no muy distante, todos los negocios avícolas serán negocios mundiales en internet o definitivamente quedarán fuera. Con toda probabilidad serán compañías alimentarias, no avícolas.Broilers & TurkeysFarewell: Paul Aho bows out after 30 yearsWith theDecember issue Poultry Perspective column, Dr. Paul Aho bids farewell toreaders but is confident the chicken industry stands in fine shape.Broilers & TurkeysConsumer preference for meat a downside riskLowerthan expected demand for meat is a possibility to be acknowledged in planning forthe future.Broilers & TurkeysChicken producers set for profitabilityGrain prices are falling, chicken prices arestrong and the competing meats are retreating from the playing field. It’s asgood as it gets for the chicken industry.Broilers & TurkeysThe great meat recessionWhen meat consumption is falling, it is almost sure to be a period of deteriorating economic conditions. On the other hand, rising meat consumption is generally a sign of an improving real economy. In contrast to the official end of the economic recession in the U.S. economy in 2009, the meat recession ended in 2012. During the meat recession, U.S. per capita red meat and poultry consumption dropped nearly 20 pounds or 10 percent. It was the biggest such recession since the 1930s.Poultry FeedSoybean demand slowing as ‘China effect’ recedesWith a slowdown imminent in the rate of increase in animal protein in China, the rate at which imports of soybeans grows is also about to slow down. Instead of growing at 5 million metric tons per year, it can be expected that the rate of increase will be falling. Over the next several years a much lower average growth of perhaps 2 or 3 million metric tons can be expected.Processing & SlaughterUS chicken breast prices now globally competitiveThefalling price of corn will enable the price of skinless boneless breasts toreach a (profitable) $1 per pound this year, completing an 80 percent drop inprice in 30 years.Broilers & TurkeysWill China develop more of a taste for chicken?The future of the world chicken industry depends a lot on the taste for chicken in China. Currently chicken is not the most popular protein in China, nor is it second or even third. Chicken meat is a distant fourth after pork, farmed fish and table eggs. If the Chinese develop a taste for eating slightly more chicken, the country would become the largest producer of chicken meat.Broilers & TurkeysGap narrows between economic growth in developing, developed worldA significant change in the relationship between growth in the developed and developing world is taking place. Growth in the developing world is slowing while the developed world accelerates. As a result, the difference between the two is narrowing.Broilers & TurkeysChicken consumption to increase significantly for median world income groupChicken meat consumption is often looked at through the lens of the richest part of the world, but that part of the world does not include the majority of the income group that will be buying much more chicken in the next few decades.Page 1 of 5Next Page