Elizabeth Doughman, editor, WATT PoultryUSA and Poultry Future: Hello, I’m Elizabeth Doughman, the editor of WATT PoultryUSA and Poultry Future. In today’s episode, my guest is Brian Earnest, animal protein economist at CoBank.
Brian recently published a report that examined how growing demand for convenience, longer-term pressure on turkey supplies and increasing competition from beef and pork marketers may be impacting turkey’s position as a Thanksgiving favorite.
Thanks for joining me today, Brian.
What would you like the poultry industry to take away from this report?
Brian Earnest, animal protein economist, CoBank: I think the big level high thing for poultry in general – and specifically the turkey producers – is that we’ve got a consumer that has a changing mindset. Thinking about product offerings and what’s available for the consumer may have upstream impact.
I think this is an evolution over time that needs a little bit more attention than what we’re thinking about currently. That, at the high level, is something that is of interest to me and that I’ve dug into a little bit deeper to try and figure out what the opportunity is and shed some light on some of the challenges that I’ve been seeing over the years.
Doughman: What factors are responsible for declining sales of whole turkeys during the holiday season?
Earnest: If we think about positioning for whole turkeys and the turkey meat industry in general, sometimes consumers are really only thinking about cooking turkey one time a year at Thanksgiving. That, in and of itself, if you don’t get that one experience a year, it’s contributed to some of the decline in consumption that we’ve seen over the years. I think back to when I started looking at the poultry industry 15 years ago, turkey was marketed then for Thanksgiving and positioned as a loss leader at grocery store chains.
Over the years, we’ve seen some of the market fluctuations somewhat tied to bird flu, somewhat tied to the COVID-19 pandemic. I think all of these have really put more flexibility on the plate of the consumer for Thanksgiving. Consumers are thinking about putting something else on the table to accompany turkey and then it may become a replacement item in the future, especially if the retailer is showing an attractive offering on something like pork or ham for Thanksgiving.
If we go beyond that, thinking about how many place settings are at the dinner table for Thanksgiving to celebrate the feast, I think that has shrunk over time. Fewer folks in those big family gatherings suggests that maybe we want a smaller center of the plate offering that we had 20 years ago.
Doughman: Is there anything the turkey industry can do to prevent this from becoming the new norm or to drive sales throughout the rest of the year?
Earnest: That’s a very good question. There are some things that the industry is already doing that I find really creative.
If you think back a couple years ago, you saw these deep fryers that Butterball had to go along with turkey sale and that’s just helping with the mindset of the consumer with them asking ‘how do I cook this item?’ For some, it may be the first time they’ve ever cooked a whole turkey. These are the sorts of things to promote around the holiday season that are both creative and very valuable for the consumer.
When I get outside of that and thinking about other marketing opportunities, it could be along the same lines. I saw a quote earlier this year in a publication that there are more consumers that have an air fryer in their household today than a coffeemaker in the U.S. I think that’s an opportunity for the turkey industry to have a product that really speaks to that convenience product and offering – thinking about an air fryer and those sorts of instructions on the package on something like a turkey tender that’s already been pan fried. I think that’s some of the creativity that we’re seeing in the chicken industry in terms of marketing that lends itself to turkey.
Doughman: Obviously the turkey should be the centerpiece of any Thanksgiving meal, but you can’t talk about Thanksgiving without thinking about sides. What is your favorite Thanksgiving side?
Earnest: I like dressing and bacon has to be in there, so lend that to what you will. I think it’s one of those staples that has to be on the table, usually as a side that contributes to the turkey product or turkey dinner offering.
Doughman: Is there anything else you would like to add?
Earnest: In thinking about the producers themselves, they’ve been through a plethora of changes over the last five to 10 years. It’s easy to come up with ideas around the changing consumer and say that we should implement this and it will solve all the problems,
The producer has had hurdles of high feed costs and bird flu with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) which have contributed to an environment that’s much more difficult than it was 10 years ago. As we’re preparing for Thanksgiving, just being thankful for what they offer is something I’d like to add.
Doughman: Thanks again, Brian, and thanks to you for tuning in. For more episodes of the Future of Poultry podcasts, please like and subscribe on WATTPoultry.com or wherever you access podcasts.
