Global coarse grain production in 2012–2013 has been projected up 3.6 million tons in June to 1.23 billion tons, mostly based on increased area prospects in some countries, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest international outlook. World corn production has been increased 4.2 million tons to 949.9 million tons, but barley has been cut 0.7 million tons to 134.7 million tons.
The 2012–2013 corn area forecast for China has been raised 300,000 hectares to 34.3 million hectares as net returns per hectare for corn continue to be more favorable compared with soybeans (soybean area is also forecast lower by 300,000 hectares). This 2 million-ton increase brings China’s total corn production in 2012–2013 to a record 195 million tons, according to the USDA.
EU 2012–2013 corn production has been increased 1.1 million tons in June to 64.2 million tons, based mostly on increased area reported for Hungary and Poland. Dryness and cold winter temperatures hurt some winter rapeseed and wheat, causing winter-kill that has increased area sown to spring-planted crops. EU barley prospects are nearly the same as predicted in May as a significant area-based increase for Germany, and smaller increases for Poland, Hungary and Italy have been offset by a significant reduction for Spain and a small decline for Bulgaria, countries where reduced area and yield are confirmed by preliminary harvest reports.
Russia’s corn production has been raised 0.8 million tons to a record 7.8 million as planting reports indicate producers have sown more than 100 percent of planting intentions. The 2011–2012 corn crop was profitable compared to most other crops, and this year, area is forecast up 23 percent. Russia’s barley area has also been raised, but winter barley yields have come in below expectations, offsetting the area increase. Sowing progress reports from Belarus indicate a sharp increase in corn plantings, boosting production prospects 0.3 million tons to a record 1.3 million.
Brad Frisvold has been involved with Zinpro sales and marketing since 2005
Country’s inability to meet domestic demand results in 6 million tons of imports
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