Slow poultry growth driven by developing countries’ demand

Slowing world population growth will slow the demand for poultry meat, which will grow slowly over the next decade thanks to developing countries.

(Eraxion | Bigstock)
(Eraxion | Bigstock)

World population growth over the outlook period will slow from 1.09% currently to 0.88% by 2028, based on estimates from the recent Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Agricultural Outlook. This slowing growth will be seen unevenly throughout the different world regions with a slower growth rate in the European Union and a negative growth rate in Russia.

FAO projects world poultry meat production to rise by nearly 16.5% from the base year average of 2016-18 and 2028, slightly slower than the 18% growth comparison for 2015-17 and 2027 periods from the last Agricultural Outlook report. Although both the general population and poultry production growth are slowing, each has limited food, land and water resources. An index of growth from FAO shows population, agricultural land and agricultural production will continue to compete for these.

Due to slower meat consumption growth and an expanding meet supply coupled with lower feed grain prices relative to the previous decade, real poultry meet prices are forecast to decline in the mid-term. Real poultry prices, according to FAO, will fall under $900 to nearly $860 per metric ton/product weight by 2028. Unadjusted for inflation, nominal poultry meat prices are projected to rise slightly over the next decade.

Yet, in terms of the real price change from 2019 to 2028 for meat commodities, poultry ranks second to last compared to that for pork, beef and sheep with an annual real price growth rate of -0.57%.

Forecast for poultry markets around the world

In the EU, like many other developed countries around the world, poultry meat production over the next 10 years is projected to increase but at a much slower rate than previous decades. The European Commission forecast volume to reach almost 15.5 million metric tons, cwe, up from 14.9 in 2018. One other area of note for the future in the developing world is the Latin America and Caribbean region, which is projected by FAO to consume 34.6 kilograms of poultry per capita by 2030.



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Annual percent change in population by select country and world to 2028

Average annual real price change for agricultural commodities 2019-28

EU poultry meat production forecast to 2030

Global population agriculture and land use

Per capita poultry meat consumption in Latin America and the Caribbean to 2030

Poultry meat market projections avg. 2016-18 to 2028

Real GDP growth rates in selected countries avg. 2016-18 vs 2028

World poultry meat price projections 2019-28

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