Following the discovery of two cases of African swine fever in Poland, China and Japan have announced a ban on imports of pig meat from Poland. This follows the blocking of all EU pork shipments by Russia which was imposed immediately after the outbreak.

The two bans will heavily impact the Polish pork trade, as China, Japan, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan took over a third of all Polish pork exports between January and November 2013. Belarus and Kazakhstan are part of the Customs Union with Russia. The volume of pork exported to the countries which have banned Polish shipments is equivalent to around 10 percent of Polish production, according to BPEX.

Some of the remaining Polish pork products will find a home elsewhere in the EU, suppressing prices to some extent. The shortfall in supplies to China and Japan may be filled by other EU exporters, potentially limiting the increase in supplies and mitigating any fall in prices.