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on October 7, 2014

Danish pork prices forecast to drop in 2015

Russian ban on EU pork and increased trade competition from US and Canada contributing factors in price forecast

A forecast price of DKK9.75 (US$1.65) per kilogram for pigs marketed for meat in Denmark in 2015 has been made by economists at Landbrug & Fødevarer, the national organization for food and agriculture.

This price would be nearly DKK1.5 (US$0.25) per kilogram less than the average received by pig producers from Denmark in 2013, and about DKK0.75 (US$0.13) per kilogram less than the 2014 forecast price.

The Landbrug & Fødevarer forecast is based largely on the effect expected from Russia’s ban of certain food products, including pork, from the European Union (EU). Denmark is a member of the EU.

Also factoring in is an increase in competition in export markets from American and Canadian pork. In the United States, the effect of swine disease porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus is slowing, and Canada must find other markets for the pork that was previously allocated to Russia.

Finally, recent swine counts in the EU on the future prospect of slightly higher slaughterings in the EU than in the previous year.

The forecast takes in account an expected continuation of the Russian pork ban, and does not include any impact from possible future changes in exchange rates.

The next Danish pork forecast will be issued by economists from Landbrug & Fødevarer  in November 2014.

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