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News and analysis on the global poultry
and animal feed industries.
on January 26, 2015

Rabobank: 2015 will be a turbulent year for global pork industry

Uncertainty is widespread concerning PEDv, ASF, Russian trade and currency exchange rates

The global pork industry will remain turbulent in 2015, according to the latest quarterly global pork report from Rabobank.

In the report, Rabobank states that in 2015, there will be uncertainty about the possible re-emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus, developments concerning African swine fever (ASF), Russian trade bans and currency exchange rate developments worldwide.

“Our expectations are that markets, driven by production growth after PEDv, will cool further and result in price pressure in Q1 2015,” said Albert Vernooij, animal protein analyst with Rabobank.

Outlook for US and Mexico

According to Rabobank, in the United States and Mexico, the size of recovery after earlier PED virus outbreaks will dictate local markets with recovering production and further declining prices. The increased price competitiveness will be partly offset by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Declining feed costs will help the outlook remain positive for producer profitability.

Outlook for China

The Chinese pork industry is expected to experience a positive first quarter of 2015.The declining sow herd there will only be partly compensated by increasing sow productivity, resulting in pressured production, which will support prices.

EU pork outlook

The prospects for the pork industry in the European Union will be weak during the first quarter, Rabobank stated. Some optimism exists, as the drop of the value of the euro and the resuming negotiations to reopen trade with Russia, which would support more exports.
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