Rabobank: 2015 will be a turbulent year for global pork industry
Uncertainty is widespread concerning PEDv, ASF, Russian trade and currency exchange rates
The global pork industry will remain turbulent in 2015, according to the latest quarterly global pork report from Rabobank.
In the report, Rabobank states that in 2015, there will be uncertainty about the possible re-emergence of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) virus, developments concerning African swine fever (ASF), Russian trade bans and currency exchange rate developments worldwide.
“Our expectations are that markets, driven by production growth after PEDv, will cool further and result in price pressure in Q1 2015,” said Albert Vernooij, animal protein analyst with Rabobank.
Outlook for US and Mexico
According to Rabobank, in the United States and Mexico, the size of recovery after earlier PED virus outbreaks will dictate local markets with recovering production and further declining prices. The increased price competitiveness will be partly offset by the strengthening U.S. dollar. Declining feed costs will help the outlook remain positive for producer profitability.
Outlook for China
The Chinese pork industry is expected to experience a positive first quarter of 2015.The declining sow herd there will only be partly compensated by increasing sow productivity, resulting in pressured production, which will support prices.