Rabobank: Mexican poultry production rising in 2018-19

Broiler chicken production is expected to see a year-over-year increase of 100,000 metric tons at the conclusion of 2018 and an additional increase of the same amount for 2019, according to a recent report from Rabobank.

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Yurii Bukhanovskyi, Bigstock
Yurii Bukhanovskyi, Bigstock

Broiler chicken production is expected to see a year-over-year increase of 100,000 metric tons at the conclusion of 2018 and an additional increase of the same amount for 2019, according to a recent report from Rabobank.

In its most recent Poultry Quarterly report, Rabobank projected that full-year production in Mexico for 2018 is estimated at 3.5 million metric tons, which would be an increase of 100,000 metric tons when compared to 2017. For the third quarter of 2018, chicken production in Mexico rose by three percent when compared to the second quarter of the year.

Looking forward to 2019, Rabobank projected another increase of 100,000 metric tons of production in Mexico, which would be a 2.7 percent increase.

Demand for chicken in Mexico is also expected to increase in 2019, as Rabobank projected that per capita consumption will see a 1.7 percent jump to 35 kilograms per capita, versus the 2018 estimate of 34.5 kilograms per capita.

While domestic production is forecast to increase, Mexico is also expected to import more poultry meat to help fill the demand. In its report, Rabobank projected that those imports will see a small hike of 24,000 metric tons in 2019 to reach a total of about 860,000 metric tons.

Some volatility expected in 2019

Rabobank’s report noted that more volatility is expected in 2019 as the global outlook for trade, biosecurity concerns in other animal proteins and exchange rates could have an impact on production and trade patterns. As production in other protein categories increases as well, pressure is expected to be added to domestic prices, and therefore will have an impact on consumer decisions.

Other poultry-related topics

Other topics covered in the Rabobank Poultry Quarterly report, which is available online, include:

  • China to support recovery in 2H 2019
  • Brazilian exports to EU and Saudi to remain challenged
  • Avian influenza concerns remain
  • Feed price outlook
  • US-China trade negotiations
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