The U.S. Department of Agriculture released its newest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on September 12.
Key figures for wheat, coarse grains, oilseeds, and livestock, poultry and dairy include:
- The US 2016-17 wheat supply and demand estimates are unchanged from last month.
- The marketing year average price received by producers is lowered US$0.10 per bushel at the midpoint to a range of US$3.30 to US$3.90. The reduction is due to lower than expected prices to date.
- Global wheat supplies for 2016-17 are raised 0.4 million tons on a 1.4-million-ton production increase that is partially offset by decreased beginning stocks.
- Production increases for India, Kazakhstan, Australia, Brazil and Canada are partially offset by reductions for the EU and China. Most changes are attributable to harvest reports and government data. The Australia increase is based on continued excellent growing conditions thus far in the growing season, with yields projected to be nearly record high.
- Brazil is also experiencing favorable growing conditions with yields projected record high.
- Global exports are raised 2.1 million tons led by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Australia and a 0.5-million-ton increase for Kazakhstan, both on larger crops.
- Export gains are partially offset by a 1.0-million-ton decrease in EU exports on the continued decline in supplies.
- Total global use is up 4.2 million tons with increases in both food and feed use. With total use rising faster than supplies, world ending stocks are lowered 3.8 million tons but remain record large.
- This month’s 2016-17 US corn outlook is for lower production, reduced feed and residual use, lower stocks and higher prices.
- Corn production is forecast at 15.093 billion bushels, down 61 million from last month.
- Corn supplies for 2016-17 are lowered from last month but are still forecast at a record 16.859 billion bushels, as a smaller crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks due to a reduction in 2015-16 exports.
- Feed and residual use for 2016-17 is lowered 25 million bushels with a smaller crop and higher expected prices.
- Exports are unchanged from last month, reflecting the competitiveness of US corn on the world market.
- Corn ending stocks are down from last month but, if realized, would still be the highest since 1987-88.
- The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to US$2.90 to US$3.50 per bushel. Sorghum production for 2016-17 is forecast 14 million bushels above last month on higher yields. Grain sorghum prices are projected to average US$2.75 to US$3.35 per bushel, raised 5 cents on each end from last month.
- Global coarse grain production for 2016-17 is forecast down 2.8 million tons to 1,319.7 million, but still above the record reached in 2014-15.
- The 2016-17 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, slightly higher consumption, larger trade and reduced stocks relative to last month.
- Brazil corn production is raised, as relatively favorable corn prices in southern Brazil are expected to boost first-crop planted area at the expense of soybeans.
- Barley production is raised for Argentina, Australia, and Canada.
- China corn production is lowered, based on drier-than-normal conditions during July and August in western Heilongjiang and eastern Inner Mongolia.
- EU corn and barley production are reduced; even with lower barley production, EU internal market prices are expected to favor greater barley feeding, offsetting reduced corn feeding.
- Russia barley production is down based on lower-than-expected yields for spring barley.
- Corn exports are raised for Brazil with larger projected supplies for the local marketing year beginning in March 2017.
- Corn imports are raised for China, reflecting updated expectations of trade by non-state importers.
- China’s barley imports are lowered as the pace of trade has slowed in recent months, despite global feed barley prices that are well below a year ago.
- Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016-17 are lowered 0.7 million tons from last month.
- Stock declines are the largest in Argentina and the EU, with the former reflecting expectations of larger exports during 2015-16.
- Global corn stocks, at 219.5 million, are down from last month but still projected to be record high.
- US oilseed production for 2016-17 is projected at 124.3 million tons, up 4.1 million from last month with higher soybean, peanut and cottonseed production.
- Soybean production is projected at a record 4,201 million bushels, up 141 million due to a higher yield forecast.
- Soybean supplies are raised with higher production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks.
- Despite higher crush and exports, 2016-17 soybean ending stocks are projected at 365 million bushels, up 35 million from last month due to higher supplies.
- Changes for 2015-16 include higher exports and lower ending stocks. Exports are increased 60 million to a record 1,940 million bushels based on official trade through July and indications from record high August export inspections.
- Ending stocks are projected at 195 million bushels, down 60 million from last month.
- The US season-average soybean price is forecast at US$8.30 to US$9.80 per bushel, down 5 cents on both ends of the range. Soybean meal prices are also projected lower at US$300 to US$340 per short ton, down 5 dollars on both ends of the range. Soybean oil prices are projected at 30.5 to 35.5 cents per pound, up 1 cent on both ends.
- Global oilseed production for 2016-17 is projected at 544.5 million tons, up 1.0 million from last month.
- A reduction for rapeseed is offset with gains for soybeans, sunflowerseed, peanuts and cottonseed.
- Lower soybean production forecasts for Brazil, India and Canada are more than offset by higher production for the United States and China.
Livestock, poultry and dairy
- The forecast for total red meat and poultry production for 2016 is reduced from last month as beef, pork, and broiler production forecasts are lowered.
- Turkey production is raised.
- Beef production is forecast lower on lower expected third quarter steer and heifer slaughter.
- Pork production for 2016 is lowered on expectations of slightly lower carcass weights for the third quarter. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on September 30, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions into early 2017.
- Broiler production is lowered on slower expected growth in the second half of the year. Bird weights have been lower than previously expected.
- Turkey production for second-half 2016 is raised on production and hatchery data. No changes are made to the 2017 production forecasts for red meat or turkey, but the production forecast for broilers was reduced.
- No changes are made to the egg production forecasts for 2016 or 2017.
- Beef import forecasts for 2016 and 2017 are unchanged. Beef exports for 2016 are raised on improving trade prospects in a number of countries, but the forecast is unchanged for 2017. The pork export forecast for 2016 is lowered. Broiler and turkey exports are lowered for 2016 and 2017 as the recovery in exports remains slower than expected.
- Cattle, hog and broiler prices for second-half 2016 are reduced from last month as relatively weak prices are expected through the remainder of the year. The turkey price is raised on current price strength. The cattle price for 2017 is lowered and a small reduction is made to the first-quarter 2017 hog price. Poultry prices are unchanged from last month. Egg prices are lowered for 2017.
- The milk production forecast for 2016 is raised from last month as the cow inventory appears to have steadied in the face of expected improvements in returns.
- The production forecast for 2017 is raised to reflect slightly more rapid growth in milk per cow.