About a million metric tons (MT) of Indian corn is expected to make its way into international markets this season.
Despite drought-beaten production in 2009, a slight decline in corn use at approximately 17.4 million MT has allowed more supplies to be released for export.
Indian soya bean meal exports saw a 151% increase in September against the same period last year – 172,177 MT compared with 68,442 MT, according to the Soybean Processors Association, with much of this moving out into Asian markets.
This marked a dramatic reversal of a 34% drop in soymeal exports from October 2008 to September 2009. The same was seen for Indian oilmeal exports, which were up 19% from a year-ago after a cumulative 51% decline April to September 2009.
Corn Futures
Earlier low corn prices seem to have given way to more upswing with US production uncertain into early Q4 and strong global demand. Corn futures for December hovered at the $4 per bushel range into mid-Q4.
This has put the pressure on once lackluster soybean prices as well, which edged higher by 20 cents, at $8.20-$10.20 per bushel in November for the season-average price range, reported the USDA. Countering the upward pressure has been good production in Argentina and rapeseed output in the EU.
Relatively favorable corn prices are likely to spur demand in the current crop marketing year. In addition to a slight increase in demand from the animal feed and ethanol production, corn exports worldwide received a boost from the September price weakness, which higher prices are unlikely to dampen by much.
Analysts feel that the outlook for soy, at least till year-end may lean towards a bullish one. A new year price rally would also depend on how comfortably world ending stocks for oilseeds and grains are settling.
Businesses everywhere affected by the global economic crisis in the past year have taken to looking at Asia for signs of hope. Almost as if an answer to that hope, China’s New Hope Group, the country’s largest feed producer, secured 3000 tonnes of Thai corn in one of the largest purchases by a Chinese manufacturer to date, signaling robust demand from Asia’s giant economy.
The extent to which more imports will be needed in China will hinge largely on feed demand, which on all counts appears to hold steady. Broiler production in China is expected firm to slightly higher in 2010. The hog industry, which was hampered by the country’s H1N1 outbreak in June, will see modest growth of some 4 percent next year, partly due to this year’s weaker output.
About a million tonnes of Indian corn is expected to make its way into international markets this season. Indian soybean meal exports and as well as total oilmeal exports are also up significantly, the former by 151% in September against the same period last year, and the latter up 19% from a year-ago, reversing a cumulative 51% decline from April to September 2009.
