Global meat trades (excluding live animals and processed products) are projected to be nearly 12% higher in 2029 than in the base period average of 2017-19. This represents a slow-down in the growth of meat trade to an annual average rate of nearly 0.6%, compared to 3% during the previous decade. It is expected, however, that the share of total meat output traded will increase slightly over time, in particular at the beginning of the projection period.
Nevertheless, meat trade remains important in securing the global food supply and nutritional resources for both importing and exporting countries. In addition to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries, developing countries will play a role in this over the next decade.
Exports of poultry meat from developing countries are projected by the OECD to grow from an average of 7,319 thousand metric tons over the average of 2017-19 to 8,635 thousand metric tons by 2029, outpacing the growth of OECD (developed) countries. Although increasing exports, developing countries will still largely account for most imports over the next decade. Imports in developing countries will reach 11,278 thousand metric tons by 2029 compared with just 4,505 thousand metric tons for OECD countries, according to projects from OECD.
Overall, world poultry meat imports are projected by FAO at nearly 16 million metric tons in 2029, with exports at nearly 17 million metric tons.
In the U.S., poultry meat trade will remain relatively flat in the short term. This is due partially to much uncertainty around the impact of COVID-19, according to FAO. Africa, Asia and Latin America will account for the majority of this as growing consumption outpaces domestic production.
In Latin America, traditional exporting countries will maintain a high share of the global meat trade, benefiting from the depreciation of currencies in this region and surplus feed grain production.
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