While human cases of avian flu and the risk of human-to-human transmission are low, vaccine manufacturers GSK Plc, Moderna Inc. and CSL Seqirus are developing avian flu vaccines for humans just in case of an outbreak, according to Reuters.
This year’s avian flu outbreak has resulted in a few human cases with one of the most recent ones reported in Chile in addition to a case in Colorado in April of last year.
“None of us know when the next influenza pandemic will emerge. It could be tomorrow [or] it could be years from now, and we don’t know which of the viruses will become the next pandemic virus,” Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, told Scientific American. “At the outset, you have to say there is uncertainty, with one exception: there will be a pandemic.”
Most global health officials agree that an avian flu outbreak in humans is unlikely right now, but after COVID-19, a virus that also originated from animals, no one wants to take any chances.
“I’m keeping a close eye on it as an expert, but as a member of the community, as a parent and someone who [has been] recently experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, I’m not worried about this right now,” Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security also told Scientific American.
“This is an animal health issue right now that has a theoretical risk to become a human health issue,” Rivers continued.
According to the World Health Organization, this year’s avian influenza A(H5N1) has a 56% mortality rate in humans since it infects the lower respiratory tract which is more deadly.
However, for avian flu to become easily transmissible between humans, it would likely need to mutate to infect the upper respiratory tract which is much less severe.
