While chicken meat volumes shipped to China for the first three months of 2024 were down year-on-year, the poultry producers’ association of Brazil reports growth in exports to Middle Eastern states.
At almost 515,000 metric tons (mt), unusually strong exports of chicken meat by Brazil in March of 2023 detract from the nation’s comparative trade performance over the last month and for the first three months of this year,
This is according to Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). He said that, despite the atypical results for that month last year, exports of fresh and processed chicken meat have averaged more than 400,000mt monthly so far in 2024.
For the January-March period this year, the total volume exported was 1.22 million metric tons (mt), with revenue just over US$2.14 billion. For the first quarter of 2023, these figures were reported to be 1.31mmt and more than US$2.57 billion, respectively.
Commenting on these results, ABPA markets director Luis Rua highlighted that the Middle East region has been gaining prominence as a destination for Brazil’s chicken exports. This is linked to uncertainty in the region, he said.
For the year so far, the United Arab Emirates is the leading market with a volume of 40,700mt — a year-on-year increase of 16%. While Brazil shipped 49% less chicken to China over this period at 38,900mt, Saudi Arabia imported 35,000mt — almost 4% more than in 2022.
Prospects for Brazil’s chicken exports in 2024
Looking ahead to the rest of this year, Rua of ABPA forecasts market conditions that favor Brazilian exports — namely, a global balance in supply and demand, and the presence of avian influenza in some of Brazil’s trading competitors.
While Brazilian chicken meat production is forecast to increase 1% in 2024 to 15.1mmt, exports for the year are expected to be 4% higher year-on-year at 4.97mmt. These are the forecasts of the latest market analysis by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), and exclude chicken paws. This performance would keep Brazil in second place of global chicken producers, and as the world’s leading exporter, as it continues to focus on halal markets.
According to FAS, the Brazilian government is in discussion to open up new markets, to diversify the products shipped to existing markets, and to negotiate the inclusion of regionalization in health certificates. This latter adjustment would mitigate the effects on exports if highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus were to be detected on a commercial poultry farm in Brazil.
Since May of 2023, Brazil has officially recorded HPAI cases linked to the H5N1 virus serotype in wild birds and backyard poultry flocks, according to notifications to the World Organisation for Animal Health. Furthermore, more than 1,000 of the country’s wild mammals (fur seals and sea lions) have tested positive for the virus between October of 2023 and February this year.
All Brazilian poultry product exports higher in 2023
For the 12 months of last year, Brazil broke its own annual chicken meat export record. The final figure was 5.14mmt — a year-on year increase of 6.6%. Revenue for this trade was 0.4% higher than in 2022 at just under US$9.80 billion.
At 69,800mt, ABPA reported that the nation’s year-on-year increase in turkey meat exports for 2023 amounted to 17.8%, while associated revenue was 6.2% higher at US$201 million.
With smaller totals but delivering double-digit annual growth in 2023 was Brazil’s export of duck meat. Volume was up 18.9% at 3,507mt, and revenue by 24.4% at US$13.7 million.
For all egg products (fresh and processed), exports more than doubled in 2023 compared with the previous year, according to ABPA. Shipping of 25,400mt of products for the 12 months was 168% more than the previous year. At US$63.2 million, the increase in associated revenue was 182% higher year-on-year.
