November 2021 picked up where October left off: grocery shopping and food consumption patterns remained in flux, especially as holiday purchases started much earlier. Combined with record-setting inflation and substantial supply chain constraints, the market has yet to find new and consistent balance.
Consumers still prepare most meals at home
According to the IRI primary shopper survey, the share of meals prepared at home remains around 80% despite more people working away from home and most of the nation’s school children being back to in-person education.
While retail prices for most categories rose to their highest point in many decades, the cost for eating out at restaurants rose even faster.
Shoppers are very aware of the widespread inflation. According to the IRI November survey, 90% of primary shoppers reported grocery item prices being a little (42%) or much (48%) higher. Among consumers who noted higher prices, 92% are extremely (41%) or somewhat concerned (51%) — translating into 83% of primary shoppers being aware and concerned of the inflationary conditions.
Consumers pointed to categories across the store as areas where they have noted higher prices, led by the meat, produce and dairy categories. In response, 61% of consumers have made changes to their grocery selections. Looking for money-saving measures, including stocking up, is the most common response, followed by cutting back on non-essentials and switching to store brand alternatives.
The IRI primary shopper survey found many examples of consumers encountering inflation and out-of-stocks across all groceries:
- 37% encountered issues with availability on their list trip. Highest out-of-stocks were reported for toilet paper, canned goods, carbonated soft drinks, paper towels and milk. Meat and poultry overall did not rank highly.
- In response to not being able to buy what they came for, 39% of shoppers spent their money elsewhere and 29% ended up not purchasing the planned item at all — underscoring the significant impact of out-of-stocks on sales.
Changes to Thanksgiving meat sales
November sales are typically dominated by the Thanksgiving holiday, which tends to push an above-average share of dollars to the fresh departments.
In 2020, Thanksgiving was very home-centric. Many fewer people traveled, parties were smaller and Thanksgiving sales patterns were vastly different.
This year, more people planned to celebrate Thanksgiving and party sizes were expected to be bigger. At the same time, celebrations remained mostly home-centric though many restaurants and grocery deli’s offered turnkey holiday meal solutions and shoppers planned to shop earlier. The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) reported its highest passenger volume since the onset of the pandemic, at about 88% of the pre-pandemic volume.
Other changes also point to a reversal in the normalization of shopping and consumption patterns.
During the height of the pandemic, as many as 20% of trips were online. This dropped to a low of 11% in July. In October, the online share of trips increased to 15%.
Yet online shopping remains a complementary trip for most consumers. Only 4% of survey respondents believe they will buy all their groceries online in the next month. This compares to 21% who will only buy some or a little online. This underscores the importance of a strong omnichannel strategy to optimize the share of total dollars, particularly in meat and poultry. Fresh sales in general under index in online baskets.
The next performance report in the IRI, 210 Analytics and Marriner Marketing series will be released mid-January to cover the December sales trends, including the Thanksgiving holiday.
Please thank the entire meat and poultry industry, from farm to store, for all they do.
